After you read this, you’ll have a 32% chance at better understanding how bad you are at probability. If the risk of an event goes up or down, we assume that it will keep changing in that direction.

The mathematical measure of the uncertainty is called probability. For example, consider the following questions: (a) Will it rain today? (b) Which of the three candidates will win? (c) On throwing a ...

New cancer therapies are frequently evaluated in multiple disease indications. We evaluated whether the probability of achieving US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for a new cancer therapy ...