The persistent decline in the US Leading Economic Index and Employment Trends Index signals rising recession risk despite the AI-driven capex surge. Employment growth has slowed to recessionary levels ...

Fears of a recession are back on investors’ minds. But predicting the onset of an economic downturn, let alone the length and severity of one, is difficult even for the experts. As a rule of thumb, ...

Leading indicators provide early signals about where the economy is heading. Coincident indicators move in step with the economy, providing real-time insights into economic activity. Examining the ...

The U.S. economy is expected to slow in 2026 amid a downturn in optimism among households and businesses, according to a basket of monthly economic indicators. The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, ...