It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out. Fortunately, he had a parachute on. Unfortunately, the parachute did not open. Fortunately, there was a haystack below him, directly in the ...

When Bob flips a coin and announces the result, what can we really know about which coin he chose? This video builds probability trees to reveal how new evidence systematically updates our beliefs, ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Two Bayesian clinical trial designs that perform subgroup-specific decision making and inference based on elicited utilities of patient outcomes are reviewed. The first is a randomized comparative ...